Lock-In Risk
The likelihood that negative elements of the world become stable for a long time.
What is Lock-In?
Lock-in is where some feature of the world – technological, political, or institutional – is held stable for a long time. Possibly for centuries. Possibly forever.
A Physical Phenomenon
Emerges from the dynamics of irreversibility in complex systems.
Self-Perpetuating
Once embedded, elements self-reinforce and resist change.
Multi-Scalar
Can operate at multiple levels from organisation-level tech stacks to global ideologies.
Long-Term
Can operate across long time horizons, from years, to decades, and millennia.
What are Lock-In Risks?
Potentially Catastrophic
Could affect a significant number of individuals.
Neglected
Few organisations or individuals track or model lock-in risk.
A Moral Problem
Could perpetuate or create suffering and prevent progress.
A Global Problem
Could affect institutions, states, nations, or the world.
Definition
Defined as a subjective probability in [0, 1] that a negative lock-in occurs. Fundamentally unknowable in absolute terms and must be approximated through modelling and reduced via interventions based on conjecture and empirical investigation.
Categorising Lock-In
What is Lock-In?
QWERTY Keyboard
Classic example of an efficiency lock-in. QWERTY is the industry standard keyboard layout not because it is optimal for typing, but because the typewriter with that layout became most popular. The QWERTY keyboard layout is not locked in because the cost of switching to a layout like Colemak is high.
Stable Totalitarianism
Potentially high-impact negative lock-in that could last a long time due to the competent digital error correction of digital entities such as AI systems. An AI-enabled leader may successfully reign over a state for centuries or millennia.
AI-Driven Power Concentration
Individuals at the forefront of the AI revolution may end up with high leverage over the technological and political trajectory of humanity due to their control over AI systems, potentially creating persistent monopolies over resources and labour
Ideological Stasis
Dogmatic or anti-rational belief systems could prevail over the cultural zeitgeist and lock-in norms and practices that are self-reinforcing.
Lobster Pot Analogy
Easy to get in, hard to get out.
Locked-Room Analogy
Humans or digital agents could create lock-in scenarios
Timeline Explainer
An abstract timeline demonstrating how a lock-in could manifest
